Claremore, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

612
FXUS64 KTSA 042248
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

 - Cooler than normal weather continues today. Low shower and
   storm chances (primarily southeast of I-44) through this
   afternoon.

 - A warming trend will result in above average temperatures by Thursday.
   Heat headlines could return mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Upper level troughing remains over the area, but it is weakening and
shifting east as an upper level high begins to develop to the
southwest. In terms of sensible weather, today will be pretty quiet
overall with most areas seeing partly to mostly sunny skies and
below normal temperatures. There is a slight chance of a few minimal
showers or thunderstorms across northwest AR into southeast OK this
afternoon (10-20% chance), but any of these will diminish by
sundown. Highs will be in the 80s with overnight lows mostly in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A warming trend is expected the next few days with a strong upper
level high continuing to build into the area through mid week.
Temperatures will increase with highs reaching the mid 90s for most
areas and overnight lows in the mid 70s. Southerly flow will help
with moisture return, with afternoon heat indices reaching or
exceeding 105 F for a number of areas later in the week. Heat
headlines will probably be required at that point.

It still appears that the ridge will weaken this weekend as an
anomalously deep trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and weaker
troughing developing across the southeast. Ensemble guidance still
shows a wide spread of possibilities depending on the speed of the
Pacific trough and how far it can dive to the southeast. This will
affect how will it merges with the weaker troughing southeast of the
area. In solutions with better phasing like the GEFS and AIFS ens
temperatures cool down fairly significantly with a good chance of
rain, whereas the EPS being further north keeps conditions near to
above normal with only minimal rain chances. At this time, it
appears the warmer and drier solution may be slightly favored
overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Widely scattered showers are ongoing near the NW AR terminals,
with FYV more likely than XNA/ROG to see a VCSH or even VCTS given
the current placement and the slow southward movement. The plan is
to include a VCSH for the first couple of hours of the period at
FYV and monitor before sending the TAFs to evaluate the need for a
mention of visibility impacts or thunder inclusion. All activity
should diminish with the loss of daytime heating, well before
approaching FSM. A low chance of fog impacts toward daybreak will
also exist at FYV, but given no consistent signal in the short-
range data, no mention will be included for now. Outside of these
potential impacts at FYV, expect prevailing VFR conditions and
light winds at the E OK sites and remaining W AR terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  91  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  93  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  91  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   64  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   65  89  67  92 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   64  91  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   69  91  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   65  91  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
F10   68  90  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  91  71  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22